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 As cycling fans eagerly await the 2024 Il Lombardia, one question dominates the conversation: will Tadej Pogačar secure his fourth consecutive win and etch his name further into the annals of cycling history, or will an unexpected challenger steal the show in a dramatic upset?

Pogačar, the Slovenian phenom, has already claimed three straight victories in this prestigious race, one of cycling’s five Monuments. His dominance at Il Lombardia, which showcases the picturesque but punishing climbs of Northern Italy, has been a testament to his versatility, tactical intelligence, and sheer strength. With this year’s race being the final Monument of the season, all eyes are on Pogačar as he seeks to equal the legendary Fausto Coppi, who won the race four consecutive times in the 1940s.

However, while Pogačar is undoubtedly the favorite, cycling has a history of producing unexpected winners, particularly in races as grueling and unpredictable as Il Lombardia. Could 2024 be the year of a surprise victory?

Pogačar’s Dominance: A Testament to His Versatility

At just 26 years old, Tadej Pogačar has already accomplished more than most cyclists could dream of in an entire career. He has won the Tour de France twice, taken the top spot at the Tour of Flanders, and captured numerous other classics and stage races. However, his success at Il Lombardia stands out for the way it highlights his all-around capabilities. The route, with its steep climbs, technical descents, and constantly shifting terrain, suits riders who can combine endurance, tactical nous, and explosive power.

Pogačar’s victory in 2023 was a perfect example of his strategic brilliance. Attacking on the final climb, he managed to drop all of his rivals, soloing to victory with a combination of grit and panache. His ability to read the race and choose the right moment to strike has been key to his success at Lombardia, and it’s a skill that has made him nearly unbeatable in one-day races of this kind.

But while Pogačar seems primed to extend his dominance, endurance cycling is never predictable. A single misstep, an ill-timed puncture, or a tactical error could open the door for an opportunistic rival to pounce.

The Climbs of Il Lombardia: Where Legends Are Made

Il Lombardia is famous for its brutal climbs, including the Madonna del Ghisallo, Muro di Sormano, and the race-defining Civiglio ascent. These ascents have been the undoing of many riders, as the steep gradients—sometimes reaching over 20%—sap the energy of even the most seasoned climbers. It’s in these brutal stretches that Pogačar has thrived, repeatedly proving his ability to outclimb and outlast his competition.

However, this year’s edition could see some strategic differences. Pogačar’s rivals are fully aware of his dominance on the climbs and may try to employ different tactics to neutralize his strengths. Riders like Remco Evenepoel, who recently won the Tour of Switzerland and is known for his aggressive, long-range attacks, could try to force an early break in an attempt to shake up the race dynamics.

Moreover, Davide Formolo and Giulio Ciccone, two Italians with climbing pedigrees, might take advantage of their familiarity with the roads and conditions to challenge Pogačar. Ciccone, in particular, has had a stellar season, finishing strong in multiple high-profile races, and could be a dark horse in this year’s edition.

Remco Evenepoel: The Biggest Threat?

If anyone has the potential to upset Pogačar, it’s Remco Evenepoel. The Belgian rider is a force of nature, known for his relentless attacking style and incredible stamina. While he has faced some setbacks in recent months, including a less-than-ideal performance at the Vuelta a España, Evenepoel has rebounded with some strong late-season results. He is hungry to prove himself on the Monument stage, and Il Lombardia might be the perfect platform for him to do so.

Evenepoel’s ability to launch long-range attacks could throw Pogačar off his game. If the Belgian manages to get into an early break or creates a gap on one of the descents, it could force Pogačar to chase, potentially tiring him out before the decisive climbs. It would take a near-perfect ride from Evenepoel, but stranger things have happened in the world of cycling.

The Weather Factor: A Wild Card?

One element that could play a significant role in the outcome of Il Lombardia 2024 is the weather. October in Northern Italy can be unpredictable, with rain, wind, and cold temperatures often adding an extra layer of difficulty to an already challenging race. In 2021, Pogačar handled the wet conditions with aplomb, but this year’s forecast could add some unpredictability. Wet descents on the treacherous roads of Lombardia could lead to crashes, while cold temperatures could sap energy reserves faster than anticipated.

A wet race could also favor riders who are less well-known but more accustomed to difficult conditions. Riders from cyclocross or mountain biking backgrounds, like Tom Pidcock, could thrive if the weather turns foul, adding an element of surprise to the race outcome.

Could a Surprise Victory Be on the Cards?

While Pogačar is the clear favorite, cycling’s Monuments are notorious for producing surprise victors. Just last year, at the Liège-Bastogne-Liège, few expected Evenepoel to take the win after a challenging start to his season. Similarly, at the Tour of Flanders in 2022, Mathieu van der Poel stunned the field with a last-minute attack that caught everyone off guard.

The nature of Il Lombardia, with its steep climbs and fast descents, means that any rider who can survive the early selection and stay with the lead group has a chance of winning. The peloton’s tactical complexity, combined with the grueling course, often leads to surprises.

Ben Healy, the rising Irish star, has shown impressive form throughout 2024 and could be a wildcard in this year’s race. His aggressive racing style, combined with his improving climbing abilities, could see him challenge the established names.

Conclusion: History or Surprise?

As the peloton lines up for the 2024 Il Lombardia, the stage is set for either a historic fourth victory for Tadej Pogačar or a dramatic surprise upset. The Slovenian’s dominance at this race makes him the clear favorite, but cycling is never predictable, especially at a Monument as challenging as Il Lombardia. With riders like Remco Evenepoel, Giulio Ciccone, and a host of rising talents hungry for success, this year’s edition promises to be an unforgettable showdown.

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