The Pittsburgh Pirates have long been a franchise stuck in mediocrity, with sporadic bursts of success followed by seasons of rebuilding and stagnation. As the MLB looks ahead to the 2025 season, the Pirates are once again a team that evokes more questions than answers. With their front office seemingly stuck in a perpetual cycle of player development and underperformance, it’s tempting to call the team’s trajectory into question, but there’s a surprising sense of optimism for what’s to come—at least according to early Steamer projections. These projections are based on the most advanced modeling systems that account for every factor imaginable, from player performance to advanced statistical analysis. Let’s break down the projected numbers and what they could mean for the Pirates.
The Star Power of 2025: One Player to Watch
The first thing that stands out when we look at the Steamer projections for the Pirates in 2025 is the potential rise of **Ke’Bryan Hayes**. Hayes, the 2020 Gold Glove third baseman, has shown flashes of brilliance but has yet to put together a full season of offensive production that matches his glove work. Steamer projects Hayes to hit around **.270 with 20 home runs, 80 RBIs, and a .340 OBP**. Given Hayes’ elite defensive prowess, his bat has always been the limiting factor for his overall value, and if he can even come close to these projections, he could be the cornerstone player the Pirates desperately need.
However, here’s the rub: Steamer’s projections for Hayes seem a bit overly optimistic, given his career offensive numbers so far. While he has flashed power and discipline at times, his struggles with consistency at the plate could be an ongoing issue. So, while the projections are promising, it’s important to temper expectations. If Hayes does live up to this projection, the Pirates might finally have a legitimate star to build around—but this still feels like a “wait and see” situation.
The Underwhelming Starting Rotation
While some hope for an unexpected surge from young players like Hayes, the Pirates’ starting rotation in 2025, according to Steamer, could still leave much to be desired. Projections suggest Mitch Keller will remain the team’s ace, posting a 3.80 ERA with 200 strikeouts in around 180 innings. Keller has shown flashes of frontline potential, but his career ERA sits closer to 4.00, and the question remains whether he can sustain this level of performance over a full season, let alone for multiple years.
The rest of the rotation is where things get tricky. Players like Johan Oviedo and Luis Ortiz are projected to post mid-to-high 4.00 ERAs, and while both have potential, neither has proven to be a consistent option at the major league level. The Pirates have struggled for years to develop pitching, and while there’s hope for young arms, there’s little reason to believe that the team will suddenly field a playoff-caliber rotation by 2025.
In fact, some may argue that the Pirates’ rotation will remain the biggest hindrance to their success in the near future. Sure, it’s possible that they acquire a veteran starter or see unexpected breakthroughs from some of their prospects, but the most realistic outcome is one of mediocrity at best. This projection, in particular, is bound to stir controversy, as some fans might point to the emergence of top-tier pitchers in the minors or the development of the team’s pitching infrastructure as reasons for optimism.
A Power-Starved Lineup
The Pirates’ offense has long been a source of frustration for fans, and the Steamer projections for 2025 suggest that this won’t be changing anytime soon. Other than Hayes, the Pirates’ projected hitters leave a lot to be desired. Players like Jack Suwinski and Bryan Reynolds are projected to hit solidly—around .250 to .270 with 15-20 home runs—but neither is expected to become a true superstar. Reynolds, in particular, has shown flashes of brilliance, but he has also been mired in trade rumors for years, and his long-term commitment to the Pirates is still in question. The team could choose to trade him for prospects or players who better fit their rebuilding timeline.
The glaring issue with this projected lineup is the lack of power. Outside of Hayes, the team doesn’t have a definitive slugger to anchor the middle of their lineup. This leaves them vulnerable to teams with better pitching staffs who can neutralize their offense. In fact, the lack of a true cleanup hitter is a topic of significant debate among Pirates fans, especially considering how much money the team has saved on payroll over the years. With a projected team OPS of .710 in 2025, the Pirates will likely find themselves near the bottom of the league in offensive production—again.
The Bullpen and The Future
On the pitching side, the bullpen could provide a small amount of optimism. Steamer projects the Pirates’ relievers to finish with a 3.90 ERA, which would be slightly above league average. But this projection, too, might be overly optimistic. Relievers can often be volatile, and the Pirates have not historically been able to maintain consistent bullpen success.
Looking further ahead, the Pirates will need to make moves to bolster both their offense and pitching staff if they want to be competitive by 2025. There’s no way around it: Pittsburgh will likely need to make a few bold moves in free agency or via trade to bridge the gap between rebuilding and contending.
Conclusion: A Path to Relevance?
The 2025 Steamer projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates suggest a team that could be just shy of relevance, but not yet ready to contend. A lot hinges on the development of their young players, the consistency of their pitching staff, and whether the team can make the right moves in the next few seasons. The Pirates’ trajectory is certainly a source of debate, but based on Steamer’s data, a playoff appearance in 2025 might still be a stretch. This reality could provoke frustration from fans who have been waiting for a breakout season for years.
There’s hope for a brighter future, but for the Pittsburgh Pirates, that future still seems a little farther down the road than their most optimistic projections might suggest.