If Trump Were Running Against Biden Right Now, He’d Be Up 7 Points: Here’s Why
As of today, if former President Donald Trump were to face off against President Joe Biden in a head-to-head race, he would likely hold a solid lead—potentially by as much as 7 percentage points. This isn’t merely hypothetical posturing; rather, it reflects a convergence of factors that seem to favor Trump, even amid his legal troubles and polarizing rhetoric. While some find his candidacy inconceivable, others argue that a combination of economic discontent, foreign policy dissatisfaction, and changing attitudes about Biden’s leadership would make a Trump victory plausible, if not likely. Here’s a breakdown of why Trump could be significantly ahead right now if the two were to go toe-to-toe.
1. Economic Woes Are Driving Voter Sentiment
When Trump left office, Americans were experiencing a comparatively stable economy, especially as COVID-19’s initial shock wore off. Inflation was historically low, and despite the challenges of the pandemic, the recovery seemed possible. Since Biden took office, inflation soared to levels not seen in 40 years, grocery prices climbed, and fuel costs remain high despite recent drops. Many voters directly associate economic challenges with the sitting president’s policies, whether fair or not. Trump’s rhetoric about restoring economic “greatness” may resonate strongly with Americans frustrated by high living costs and stagnant wages.
For example, Biden’s ambitious “green” policies are seen by critics as contributing to energy inflation, while Trump’s supporters claim he would focus on domestic production to alleviate prices. The comparative strength of Trump’s message on the economy could well be giving him a significant polling advantage over Biden, one that could translate into a decisive lead.
2. Foreign Policy Failures Are Compounding
During his first term, Trump’s foreign policy decisions—often unconventional—were hailed by his base as examples of “America First” strength. Despite facing backlash for his relationships with authoritarian leaders, Trump was widely seen as aggressive on the world stage. By contrast, Biden’s handling of international issues has been rocky: the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the ongoing war in Ukraine with massive American financial aid, and escalating tensions with China have raised questions about the effectiveness of Biden’s foreign policy.
Many Americans are frustrated by what they perceive as Biden’s weak stance on international conflicts that seemingly draw the U.S. into costly obligations without clear benefits. Trump, for all his controversial policies, was often seen as unpredictable, which his supporters argue deterred adversaries like Russia and China. Whether accurate or not, this perception might drive voters to consider Trump as a preferable candidate for global stability.
3. Cultural Backlash and Dissatisfaction With Progressive Agendas
Cultural issues have reached a fever pitch in America, with debates over education, gender, and free speech dominating public discourse. Conservatives—and even some moderates—feel that Biden’s administration has embraced a progressive agenda that conflicts with their values. Policies on transgender rights, critical race theory in schools, and free speech on college campuses have divided the country, with some believing that Biden’s administration is pushing for social changes faster than society is ready to accept.
Trump, by contrast, has openly opposed these initiatives and cast himself as a defender of “traditional” American values. This position resonates not only with his conservative base but also with independents who are tired of feeling lectured or marginalized for holding more traditional beliefs. This cultural “pushback” alone could explain a significant chunk of Trump’s hypothetical lead over Biden.
4. Growing Concerns Over Biden’s Age and Health
A critical factor shaping this hypothetical scenario is the increasing scrutiny of Biden’s age and health. At 80 years old, Biden is the oldest sitting president in U.S. history, and doubts about his ability to serve another term have become more pronounced. Frequent public missteps, including verbal slip-ups and apparent confusion during speeches, have led some to question his cognitive fitness. Although Trump is only a few years younger, he projects an energy that appeals to his base and could help him appear as the “more vigorous” candidate.
In contrast, Biden’s age has caused unease even among Democrats, some of whom feel he should pass the torch. This concern about Biden’s fitness to lead could push undecided voters toward Trump, despite Trump’s own baggage.
5. Trump’s Legal Issues Aren’t Dissuading His Base
Trump’s multiple legal battles, which range from civil lawsuits to federal indictments, would likely devastate most political candidates. However, Trump has maintained a loyal base that views these cases as politically motivated, framing him as a victim of a biased “deep state” that they believe is out to destroy him. Rather than alienating his supporters, these controversies have energized them, fueling donations and support.
Additionally, Trump’s base sees his legal entanglements as evidence that he is a threat to the political establishment. This “martyrdom effect” is a rare dynamic that has kept Trump’s popularity resilient. It’s unlikely that new charges or trials would significantly alter the loyalty of his base, giving him a durable edge.
6. Independent Voters Are Swinging Conservative
Independent voters, who often determine election outcomes, appear to be trending more conservative as they become disenchanted with Biden’s policies. This group is particularly impacted by issues such as inflation and foreign policy and may be increasingly drawn to Trump’s anti-establishment message, seeing it as preferable to Biden’s approach. Many independents are also more likely to identify with the economic grievances and cultural frustrations amplified by conservative media.
Polls show that independents’ confidence in Biden’s ability to handle these issues is slipping. If this trend continues, it could significantly bolster Trump’s chances in a hypothetical match-up.
In Conclusion
While any political match-up remains speculative, there’s reason to believe that Trump would hold a meaningful lead over Biden if the election were held today. With economic discontent, concerns about Biden’s health, cultural pushback, and a lack of confidence in foreign policy direction, the conditions seem increasingly favorable for a Trump resurgence.
Would this scenario ultimately play out in Trump’s favor? It’s hard to say. However, ignoring the possibility of a Trump lead in today’s climate would be unwise, especially for a Biden campaign that may need to address these pressing issues head-on if it hopes to hold onto the White House. For many Americans, Trump’s flaws pale in comparison to their desire for change, and this sentiment could prove pivotal if the two were to meet again in 2024.
